How important is probability theory

Why Iron Betting Doesn't Really Exist

Everything comes with experience if you have the intellectual potential


Most gamblers believe that the theory of probability in sports betting does not work because too many random variables influence the outcome of a sports match, including a great deal depends on human error. A good example was given that it is the same as assuming that the earth's gravity has no effect on an airplane, since it allows it to fly despite its mass of several hundred tons.


An important aspect with the coin that can be cited every time there is an argument about distant profits. The 50% = 0.5 probability of one side of a perfect coin falling out means that, on average, each side should fall out once out of two flips. But in reality, you can flip a coin ten times, and all ten times will fall out, for example, tails.


There is no such thing as a 100% sure-fire or no-win bet. No one knows the real probability of a sporting event, not even the bookmaker parimatch india app.

In simplified terms, it can be said that this very probability he evaluates, issuing odds on this event. And this estimate is approximately equal to the value of 1/coefficient. The odds of 1.1 roughly reflect the probability of 1/1.1 = 90.9%. Which can be described in words as an event that must occur on average 9 times out of 10.


It is impossible to draw confident conclusions about whether bets are profitable or not at the distance after only a conditional 10 attempts. Because of the variance, the actual result at the distance can be very different from that shown in the short run. The higher the odds, the higher the dispersion, the more bets you need to make to understand where they will lead you.

It is necessary to evaluate the profitability or unprofitability of bets exactly at a distance, if you seriously and permanently are going to earn, betting on sports, and not expect to catch a lucky streak ("positive variance outburst"), take the money and never come back to betting in bookmakers' offices.


Many people compare bookmaking to casinos. Both are about gambling. Both there and there, many believe that it is impossible to win. However, there is one significant difference between a bookmaker's office and a casino that changes things dramatically. If in casino games all probabilities are known in advance, the probabilities of real sporting events are not known reliably to anyone, including bookmakers.

Therefore, it is quite real, in fact, regularly occur when bookmakers give odds above 2 on events whose actual probability is around 50%. Which means a profit at a distance for the player making such bets (value bet - that's what gives a distance profit).


The secret of success in sports betting does not contradict mathematics or probability theory and at first glance is formulated quite simply: it is necessary to choose bets where the bookmaker's odds wrongly estimate the probability of an event, making it profitable for the player. Accordingly, finding such events and placing them on a regular basis, and you can have earnings.